Ivan Goncharenko – Indicate Impact and Strategy
The world has been surprised by the steadfast resistance of Ukraine to the latest Russian invasion. Media outlets have reported the huge gap between the forces, including in the number of tanks, artillery pieces, airplanes, and soldiers. However, there is almost no serious reference to the role of offensive and defensive social network capabilities in the war. Indicate Impact and Strategy, a global research group specialized in Social Media analysis, has monitored closely Telegram channels as one of ongoing battlefields in the current war. This war is a first strong example of the importance of social media in a modern war, that shows how Ukraine’s national Social Media strategy has helped to prevent pessimistic forecasts and resist the invasion until now. In fact, this is the first Telegram war, and its results should make decision makers to take seriously social media battlefield, and especially approachable platforms like Telegram.
Even before the war Telegram messenger has been popular in Russia and Ukraine, while 86% of Russians and 60% of Ukrainians have used the platform on a daily basis. However, with the beginning of the invasion there was a significant increase in the number of Telegram channel followers in Ukraine and Russia, probably as a result of blocking news sites in Russia and difficulty in current news reports in Ukraine due to the ongoing bombing.
Increase in the number of Telegram channels followers in Russia (Dark Blue) and Ukraine (Light Blue)
Thus, the war moved to Telegram. Major Ukrainian news sites have published reliable telegram groups by regions. Residents were asked to track it for reliable information.
This article is based on an ongoing review and analysis of hundreds of Ukrainian Telegram channels that meet the definition of "news & mass media" and the number of followers in each group exceeds 80,000 followers. Total number of followers is close to 25 million (possible cross followers). The article is also based on 35 official Ukrainian regional telegram groups. On average, every day a news channel in Ukraine publishes about 317 updates which have been reviewed and divided by the Indicate team into 5 main topics, that contribute to the Ukrainian achievements in the war.
Transmit the military and the municipalities’ operational guidelines
In modern war, great flexibility is required and often behavior changes on an hourly basis as new information from the battlefield or civilian population is received. Guidelines conveyed through communication channels are reliable and reach the majority of the population, which for the most part has become a fighting force inside and outside the cities and it allows to resist Russians more effectively. There are examples of instructions given by the military and municipalities: videos on how to make a Molotov cocktail and in which part of the tank it is best to hit with it; A good example of the importance of such connection with the people is the case of sale of diesel fuel to Russian soldiers. Villagers reported that Russian soldiers had run out of diesel and were seeking to buy it from local residents. Immediately after that, military instruction published that villager can sell a diesel to soldiers, but sand must be putted in first. Diesel with sand will not allow to the tanks to move further. It is difficult to assess the damage caused by the guideline to the Russians, but it is undoubtedly an effective use of civilian force
Video how to make a Molotov bottle
Training materials on where to throw Molotov cocktails. Divided by vehicle types
An appeal to the public to hide street names in cities since Russians rely on it
Information on enemy forces’ location
The distance from the borders of Belarus, from where the Russian forces has entered, to Kiev is about 250 kilometers. On the way there are a considerable number of Ukrainian villages. The villagers pass on the information about the forces as soon as they see then near their villages. This allows for forces to be prepared not only in Kyiv but also in the following villages. All information is conveyed through communication channels to warn adjacent areas. It gives a huge advantage to Ukrainian forces who can be one step ahead and also raises the morale of the residents as they can help to the effort in the war with Russia.
Guidelines on how to differentiate between Russian and Ukrainian aircraft
Request to citizens to report the location of specific Russian forces
Revealing Russian tankers hidden as a regular trucks
Army’s bot where citizens can pass information on movements of Russian forces
Psychological Warfare
The country creates tools that allow firstly to undermine the morale of the Russians and secondly to try and convey information to the people of Russia who are only partially aware of what is happening on the battlefields. For example, a website and telegram of all killed and captured Russian soldiers were created. It created a panic about the loss of the Russian army (warning: graphic images): https://t.me/rf200_now, https://200rf.com/ Another example is guidelines with suggestions for different creative way to reach the Russian population. Thus, any resident can open the Russian search system "Yandex" and mark a point in Russia attaching pictures of the bodies of Russian soldiers. Another way is a suggestion to search the Russian dead soldiers on social media and write to their friends and parents through the messengers. It has considerable potential to make people in Russia to demonstrate against the war.
Right- Local videos and photos of destroyed Russian forces
Left - Reports of each international support for Ukraine
Thwart of Russian Psychological Warfare
In general, it is very difficult to differentiate Russians from Ukrainians externally and by language. After all, part of the Ukrainian population also speak Russian. This allows the Russian side to create communication channels in Russian and send misleading messages that usually seeking details about the progress of Ukrainian forces and aiming to lower the morale of the Ukrainian people. Ukrainian side exposes this activity on a regular basis and warns the public through the reliable communication channels.
Denial of a report that Kyiv was occupied by Russians
Pictures and videos of captured Russian soldiers, to show Russian weakness
Reporting on text messages with an attempt to recruit Ukrainians to the Russian side
Creating a sense of control and activity by the government and the military
In times of utter chaos and endless shelling, the country's biggest enemy is panic. This is even more true when it comes to a country with a large area with part of its population considering joining the other side in a time of panic. To prevent this, the communication channels used by the government, the army, and the administration to manage the state – creating the city day schedule, reporting curfew’s time, time for food shopping, electricity maintenance etc. In addition, government informs on the way in which salaries will be transferred through the government app and additional fast loans are suggested. Also, on a daily basis, official videos of administrations and villages mayors are uploaded, where they report city readiness to resist the invaders. In addition, every day - morning and evening there are briefings by the Prime Minister or one of his governments on the situation in the country. Such measures allow to the population to understand that the state is operating, and it has not fallen into the hands of Russians.
Online google map of grocery stores in Ukraine with timelines
Reports on a reliable and uniform TV that operates from the Dia App
(the app that every Ukrainian citizen must download)
Conclusions
This is only partial information about conducting this war on the communication channels, but it can be assumed that the cohesion, progress and resistance of the Ukrainian people in the face of the invasion are result of the effective management of social media war. It is likely that even if the Ukrainian tanks had won all the battles outside the city, but this information would not have reached the frightened civilians, sitting in the metro and reading the misinformation messages from the enemy - national resistance would have failed in the first days of the war. This is only the small part of Ukraine's civilian cyber war against Russia in this war, but even the tip of the iceberg proves that armies in the twenty first century must take civilian cyber abilities seriously, the same as the number of tanks and aircraft.
Based on the research, there is a number of important conclusions might be made:
Nowadays war does not take place on the battlefields only. The resilience of the civilians is even more important to enable decision makers to continue fighting.
Telegram is essential for the creation of a channel through which the government can communicate directly with its citizens and transmit full control in time of war.
·Telegram is essential for creating a militant civil society. Proper management of the connection and messages allows to recruit and arrange a civil society in a way that will assist in combat / rescue efforts.
·Social networks allow the creation of a direct channel to the enemy's civil society, in order to reveal to it the real price it is paying on the battlefield.
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